New disruptive technologies have made warfare extremely complicated. Drones play a vital role in warfare, in ISR operations, and in coordinating and directing punitive strikes. Russia and Ukraine have been using drone technology to gain the upper hand on dynamic battlefields.
The Russia-Ukraine war has witnessed a significant increase in the use of drones for surveillance and strikes. Unmanned systems have also gone beyond the air domain and are put into service in naval and land battles. Russia introduced unmanned ground vehicles in January/February 2023, and Ukraine launched an attack on the port of Sevastopol in October 2022 using unmanned surface vehicles, known as maritime drones.
United States and Israel are pioneers in the field of development and employment unmanned aerial vehicles, informally known as drones. In addition, Iran, Russia and Turkey have also made significant contributions in this area. Drones are widely used in the global war on terror and are quickly becoming an important part of the equipment of most armed forces.
1. Introduction
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war finally established the importance of drones on the conventional battlefield. Within 15 minutes of the start of the war, Azerbaijan drones destroyed almost 50% of Armenia’s air defense systems and 40% of its artillery. The Azerbaijan army is armed with Israel Harop and Orbiter cruise missiles (LM), as well as Turkey Bayraktar, combining sensors with precision strikes and even destroying active air defense systems. Azerbaijan drones almost control the sky and can attack Armenia ground forces with impunity.
The evolution of drone warfare is actually carried out in flight, and drones are ready to shape the contours of all future wars. The briefing describes the multifaceted role of drones in the Russia-Ukraine war and the impact of unmanned systems on future wars.
2. The first drone war
The year 2022 saw the creation of several “firsts” in the use of UAVs, including the first recorded case of an “unmanned” air combat and the first known case of a fighter shooting down a kamikaze drone (Shahed-136).
Ukraine released a 16-second video of two drones fighting, the first time in the history of the war.
The footage shows that the Ukraine drone is tasked with a Russia quadcopter responsible for observing and controlling artillery fire, operating around it and then deliberately crashing into it. In the video, the blades of the Russia quadcopter broke and the fuselage crashed to the ground.
2022 also recorded the first case of a fighter crashing due to being hit by shrapnel from a drone explosion. A Ukraine MiG-29 reportedly shot down a Geran-2 (or Shahed-136), and when the drone exploded, the MiG-29 was apparently hit by shrapnel from the exploding Geran-2 and crashed when the pilot lost control of the aircraft.
The Russia-Ukraine war does not have a precedent for the first use of AI in combat. In 2021, the Israel Defense Forces described the 11-day conflict in Gaza as the world’s first “AI war,” citing the war’s use of AI to identify rocket launch pads and deploy swarms of drones. However, both Russia and Ukraine are reportedly making extensive use of AI for target recognition, facial recognition, data fusion, and signal communication to improve the effectiveness of combat operations. Artificial intelligence is also being used in drone operations.
Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mikhailo ·Fedorov said on July 26, 2023 that the Ukraine armed forces have been deployed
“1,700 drones will be delivered to the front line to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Among them are attack and reconnaissance helicopters. The drones are equipped with artificial intelligence that will help effectively identify and destroy Russia targets. “How the armies of Russia and Ukraine use artificial intelligence to enhance the combat capabilities of drones is of concern to armed forces around the world; At present, there is limited information in this regard.
3. UAVs for ISR operations and target targeting
Drones play a vital role in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, providing enhanced information gathering, situational awareness, and decision-making capabilities to armed forces and intelligence agencies.
Unmanned systems can be equipped with high-resolution cameras and sensors to generate real-time information about the target area. They can gather information about the activities and movements of the target and changes in the terrain configuration. UAVs can track targets for long periods of time and generate comprehensive and actionable intelligence. UAVs equipped with special payloads can perform electronic warfare and signals intelligence tasks.
Both Russia and Ukraine are effectively using drones for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as targeting operations. By October 2022, on any given day, Ukraine forces flew drones over Russia positions, and by late evening, nearly 3,500 photos were taken, which were downloaded to computers for analysis. After analyzing the target and identifying it, a confirmation reconnaissance is carried out in order to avoid wasting a valuable resource – artillery shells.
After the drone operator confirms the presence of the target, repeats that the flyer will then use a tablet and a portable internet terminal of the Starlink system to coordinate/direct artillery fire. Back in October 2022, the Ukraine army successfully used three M777 howitzers supplied by United States to hit the target directly. Other weapon systems, such as Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and United States HIMARS rocket systems, guided by drones, have played a greater role in destroying targets in Russia.
4. Maritime drone attacks
On October 29, 2022, seven unmanned surface ships attacked the port of Sevastopol, hitting a frigate and a minesweeper. The attack of a canoe-sized sea drone is an innovative concept, and the impact of the attack exceeds the physical damage inflicted on the Russia Navy. Each vessel is equipped with a motorized optical/infrared periscope and Starlink satellite communications antenna that transmits multiple video sources and facilitates long-distance driving.
Some leading analysts believe that the attack marked the beginning of a new era for the Navy, although this is not the first time that unmanned surface vehicles have been used in warfare to attack enemy ships.
On March 22, 2023, Ukraine forces attacked the port of Sevastopol for the second time. This time, unmanned surface vehicles are used in conjunction with drones, which is a clever use of emerging and disruptive technologies. Despite the readiness of the Russia Navy, the raid did not achieve the desired results. The USV of Ukraine was destroyed by defensive fire from Russia, and at least one was trapped in the floating boom of the port. Although the raid failed, it had a significant impact, prompting the Russia Navy to remain cautious.
On July 17, 2023, Ukraine unmanned boats aimed at the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea with the border with Ukraine. Bridge between the peninsula and mainland Russia. One section of the bridge was destroyed, and the other was more than 30 inches out of place. Destroying bridges in wartime has always been a difficult task. The use of drones and unmanned surface ships may provide an answer to this thorny military problem.
The novelty of the Ukraine operation lies in the use of ready-made non-military-grade equipment to maximize its effectiveness and bridge the asymmetry in capabilities with the Russia army. These attacks are also important because they make use of the modern communication system, namely Starlink, and symbolize “swarm” attacks, although they don’t quite fit the nuances of terminology.
In his article on August 31, 2023, HI Sutton describes the development of USV in Ukraine, which has been developed for two generations. Sutton noted that the first generation of Ukraine USVs was initially reported in September 2022 and played an important role in the raid on Sevastopol in October 2022. The designs of these USVs vary as they are manufactured by different agencies, such as the GUR (Defense Intelligence Agency of Ukraine), the Ukraine Navy, and even crowdfunded private enterprises.
Since then, Magura’s capabilities have rapidly increased, with a reported range of 450 nautical miles, a top speed of 42 knots, and a payload of 320 kilograms, a family of unmanned robotic devices for autonomous guards at sea. The USVs of the “Sea Baby” series were equipped with 860 kg of explosives and were used on August 17, 2023 to undermine the Kerch Bridge.
On August 24, 2023, President Zelensky recognized the importance of unmanned aerial vehicles, acknowledging the use of a series of “special-purpose naval unmanned systems” by the 385th separate brigade of the Ukraine Navy, which is also the first time in the history of drone warfare that a special forces consisting of unmanned surface vehicles has been formed.
5. Unmanned ground vehicles
In the first half of 2023, there were interesting developments on the battlefield front, with both Russia and Ukraine beginning to test and deploy unmanned ground vehicles in operation. The Russia Armed Forces began to use remote-controlled old tanks equipped with explosives against Ukraine infantry and defense units. Around the same time, they were also working on “high-tech, autonomous driving options, such as the Marker UGV, which demonstrates artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities and is capable of traversing controlled environments without an operator.” “In January 2023, it was reported that four Russia marked UGVs were deployed to the Eastern Donbas region to carry out tasks. The Marker is a modular system weighing three tons that can be installed with grenade launchers, heavy machine guns, anti-tank guided missiles, and electronic warfare equipment.
Ukraine began to receive UGVs around the same time. Germany and Estonia committed to deliver 14 THeMIS UGVs for the evacuation of the wounded. At the same time, many small-scale enterprises, innovators and engineers are working with experimental technologies carrying anti-tank mines, remote-controlled machine guns and even 20-mm guns. These experimental techniques are relatively inexpensive, with a prototype costing less than $1000.
6. Drones change warfare
War is protracted, but war or “how” is fought depends on many factors, the most important of which is technology. Emerging and disruptive technologies have made warfare extremely complex and dynamic, and will dominate all future battlefields. They help generate vast amounts of data, identify new threats and vulnerabilities, and the latest generation of weapon systems and platforms are extremely precise and deadly. A new generation of sensors, satellites, and radars, combined with artificial intelligence, are shortening decision-making cycles and increasing the operational tempo of warfare in unimaginable ways.
What role do drones play in the changing characteristics of warfare? Are they a revolutionary concept? Unmanned systems have been used in warfare for hundreds of years.
Unmanned surface vehicles filled with explosives or fire have been used by sailing ships, targeting ships at sea and in ports. The history of UAVs dates back to the First World War, although they were never put into combat. During World War II, United Kingdom pilots used drones for shooting exercises, and during the Cold War, the United States Navy used helicopter drones to drop torpedoes on Russia submarines.
In this context, unmanned systems are neither a new nor a revolutionary concept. However, cheap platforms and their ability to harness the infinite possibilities of artificial intelligence will allow drones to transform warfare. During the global war on terror, United States’ Predator drones and Reaper drones entered the field of vision of ordinary people. They are large military aircraft and are expensive. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has witnessed another dimension of drones. A large number of small, cheap, off-the-shelf and even recreational UAVs have appeared on the battlefield, involving three domains: land, sea and air.
The price of fifth- and fourth-generation aircraft is in the millions of dollars, and few countries are able to maintain a fleet of such aircraft. In contrast, drones are inexpensive and expendable, but they are an extremely powerful tool of warfare. They can perform a wide variety of tasks, from intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, to directing artillery, chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear combat missions, to name a few. In addition, unmanned aircraft systems have the advantage of providing continuity and reducing risk for all personnel.
Democratize war with small, inexpensive and freely available drones. They are no longer the preserve of developed countries. The innovative use of unmanned systems is bridging asymmetries with advanced militaries and state and non-state actors. For example, UGS can be used as a landmine or even as a “suicide bomber”. Small UGVs filled with explosives can penetrate enemy defenses, crash into defenses, and explode under enemy tanks and guns.
In the aerial realm, 2022 is the year of quadcopters. Mavic quadcopters are widely used by both parties for ISR. First-person view drones appeared in early 2023 and were put into service later that year on an unprecedented and staggering scale – hundreds of thousands of them are reportedly in use in Russia per month.
According to some studies, drones on the battlefield in August 2023 will last for three months, and Ukraine is reportedly replacing drones at a rate of 50,000 to 10,000 per month.
The battlefield in Ukraine is full of drones, which constantly monitor the changing situation. Battlefield transparency, combined with an AI-aided targeting system, can destroy targets almost instantaneously. Russia and Ukraine have deployed drones and AI-powered integrated battlefield management systems that increase transparency to a level where a fleet of tanks or troops on the move can be located within three to five minutes and hit within the next three minutes. The survival time on the move is less than ten minutes. As AI technology matures and countries develop and acquire swarm drone capabilities, there are concerns about the potential for drones to become weapons of mass destruction.
